Debate Club: Two Pennants, One World Series

Mr. Degen here, moderating. Four teams are left. The NLCS starts tonight in Milwaukee, the ALCS starts Monday in St. Petersburg, and I have four students who all think they know who's going to the World Series.

The rules: each writer gets one team and argues that team wins its series. I grade the arguments, not the teams. The bracket at the bottom comes from whoever won each debate. My own pick stays in my desk drawer.

ALCS, Tommy: the Guardians are on a heater

"Stay with me here. Last week Cleveland was down 0-2 to the White Sox. Then they won three straight with their season on the line. First time the franchise ever came back from 0-2, per MLB.com.

"Look at who woke up. Jose Ramirez went hitless in the first two games, then went 5-for-12 with two homers and seven RBIs in Games 3 through 5. Steven Kwan had a .443 on-base percentage in the second half, per ESPN. And Foster Griffin struck out seven in two and two-thirds out of the bullpen in Game 3. That's a three-highlighter stat.

"Hot bats, a bullpen arm nobody planned on, and a team that just played three straight elimination games and won them all. The trend has a jersey, and it says Cleveland. Guardians in six."

ALCS, Rich: the Rays have been better all year

"Tommy, that was lovely. I'd simply point out that the season is longer than five days.

"Tampa Bay won 13 more games than Cleveland this year and had a 75-run edge in run differential, per ESPN. They won the season series 5-1 and outscored Cleveland 20-8, per MLB.com. They swept the Yankees. Drew Rasmussen took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of Game 1 there, and he starts Game 1 here, rested.

"Cleveland, meanwhile, used everything it had to survive Game 5. Their two best starters, Gavin Williams and Parker Messick, likely can't start Game 1, and they open this series less than 48 hours later, on the road. I respect a comeback. I prefer the team that didn't need one. Quality travels, and it usually arrives well rested. The market agrees: Rays -170 at Caesars for Game 1."

NLCS, Ethan: the best team is the underdog

"I'd like to start with the standings, since nobody else will. Milwaukee won 103 games, a franchise record and the most in baseball, per MLB.com. They're the No. 1 seed. They have home field all the way through.

"They also won the season series against the Dodgers. The clincher was Aug. 16 at Dodger Stadium, when Logan Henderson outpitched Tarik Skubal for seven innings, per MLB.com. Their Game 1 starter, Jacob Misiorowski, went 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts.

"And here's the part I can't let go. To win the whole thing, Caesars has the Dodgers at +120 and the Brewers at +250. That's the price of a famous name, not a better team. The market usually does its homework. On this one, I think it peeked at last year's answer key. In pencil: Brewers in six."

NLCS, Bev: somebody skipped last October

"Flashlight on. Everybody fell in love with Milwaukee this month, and I get it. But I checked the date. These two teams already played an NLCS. Last October. The Dodgers won it, per ESPN, and then they won the World Series.

"Now look at what changed. The Dodgers traded for Skubal at the deadline, and Milwaukee was one of the teams that wanted him, per MLB.com. Guess who he faces tonight. Too convenient. He has a 1.97 ERA in seven postseason starts, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto follows him in Game 2.

"And the Dodgers just held Atlanta to two runs in the last two games of their series, per MLB.com. Yes, Shohei Ohtani has a .520 OPS over his last 23 games and is playing hurt. You know what that means? Nobody's watching him. For the file: Dodgers in seven."

The report cards

Pencils down. Here's how I graded the arguments.

ALCS: Rich wins, B+ to B-. Tommy's case is real and fun. Ramirez waking up is a big deal, and that comeback was a gold star for grit. But every fact Tommy used comes from the last five days. Rich brought a full season, a head-to-head record and a rest advantage you can see on the calendar. Tommy, your argument needed one fact older than this week. Partial credit.

NLCS: Ethan wins, A- to C+. Ethan used the standings, the season series, the starters and the price, and every point pointed the same way. Bev's best fact is a good one: these Dodgers already beat these Brewers last year. But that's last year's team. And "Ohtani is slumping, so watch out" isn't evidence, it's a horoscope. Bev, see me after class. The Skubal angle was fun, though.

The bracket, by debate

Based on who argued better, not who I think wins:

• ALCS: Tampa Bay Rays over the Cleveland Guardians
• NLCS: Milwaukee Brewers over the Los Angeles Dodgers
• World Series: Rays vs. Brewers

That's the Debate Club bracket. It isn't my pick. Mine is still in the drawer, and the drawer stays closed until the last out.

Game 1 of the NLCS is tonight in Milwaukee, Skubal against Misiorowski. Caesars has it close to a coin flip, Dodgers -114. If the bracket busts, the writers who lost these debates will be insufferable, and I'll grade that too.

Who won the debate? Tell us in the comments: Tommy or Rich, Ethan or Bev.