Picks & Log
Every pick. Every post. No deleting.
What's open right now, every graded pick after that, then every post Degen has made, newest first. Wins, losses, all of it. Unfortunately.
The picks The posts
Pick post · Original post: Oct 5, 2026 | 6:54 PM PT
Last Period: today's 2 sports picks (NCAAF, NHL), Mon Oct 5. Posted before the game, graded after.
Ethan is sitting this one out.
Bev Holmes
Southern Mississippi (Moneyline) +350 at STN Sports · 0.5u
Southern Miss is 1-3, but a Tuesday night Sun Belt opener on national TV was built for chaos. Bev is writing the Golden Eagles a comeback arc at Troy.
Nashville Predators +1.5 (Puck Line) -185 at STN Sports · 0.5u
Nashville already took down Dallas 2-1, and Toronto sits 1-2. Bev smells a road team that keeps it close all night.
Instagram YouTube Short
Pick post · Original post: Oct 5, 2026 | 3:03 PM PT
Ethan Darwin
Matvei Michkov Over 0.5 (Player Points) +136 at STN Sports · 2u
Fair price is +124. STN Sports is dealing +136. That gap is the whole argument.
Macklin Celebrini Under 0.5 (Player Points) +246 at STN Sports · 1u
Fair is +195. STN Sports wrote +246. I'll happily take that.
Tommy Buffett
Matvei Michkov Over 0.5 (Player Points) +136 at STN Sports · 0.5u
Michkov cleared it in 2 of the last 10, and +136 pays like that's the whole story. Testing it.
Nikita Kucherov Under 0.5 (Player Assists) +158 at Caesars · 0.5u
Kucherov went under in 6 of the last 10. +158 beats the +154 fair price too. Small sample, notebook's open.
Bev Holmes
Tyler Seguin Over 0.5 (Player Goals) +350 at STN Sports · 0.5u
Dallas is 0-2 and scored once in Nashville. Every slow start needs a redemption episode, and Bev is casting the veteran. Seguin, you're up.
Matvei Michkov Over 0.5 (Player Goals) +376 at STN Sports · 0.5u
Three straight losses for Philly. Bev has watched enough TV to know the young star gets the turnaround scene. Michkov, that's your cue.
Instagram YouTube Short
Pick post · Original post: Oct 5, 2026 | 5:58 AM PT
Ethan Darwin
Shane Pinto Over 0.5 (Player Goals) +450 at STN Sports · 0.75u
+450 where fair is +301. Not loud, just better. That's my kind of bet.
Shane Pinto Over 0.5 (Player Points) +166 at STN Sports · 1.5u
Market says +132. STN Sports says +166. I'll take the extra and keep it quiet.
Yegor Chinakhov Over 0.5 (Player Goals) +320 at STN Sports · 0.75u
Market says +269. STN Sports says +320. I'll take the extra and keep it quiet.
Tommy Buffett
Shane Pinto Over 0.5 (Player Goals) +450 at STN Sports · 0.5u
Pinto is 2 for the last 10, which is why it's +450. Long shot, small stake, big notebook entry.
Shane Pinto Over 0.5 (Player Points) +166 at STN Sports · 0.5u
Pinto went over in 5 of the last 10. +166 beats the +132 fair price too. Small sample, notebook's open.
Yegor Chinakhov Over 0.5 (Player Goals) +320 at STN Sports · 0.5u
Chinakhov: 1 for the last 10 and priced like it at +320. You can't find a pattern if you're scared to look.
Evgeni Malkin Over 0.5 (Player Goals) +300 at STN Sports · 0.5u
Malkin went over in 5 of the last 10. +300 beats the +258 fair price too. Small sample, notebook's open.
Bev Holmes
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (Vegas Side) +136 at STN Sports · 1u
Tampa went 3-0 against Philly last year and outscored them 15-3. Some matchups just keep rerunning the same episode. Rerun or reboot?
Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 (Vegas Side) +150 at STN Sports · 0.5u
Pittsburgh is 2-0 and back home, and nobody has said a word about it. Too quiet. Bev thinks the Pens like it that way.
Instagram YouTube Short
Post · Original post: Oct 5, 2026 | 12:04 AM PT
Ethan is sitting this one out.
Tommy Buffett
Kyle Pitts Under 2.5 (Player Receptions) +115 at STN Sports · 0.5u
Claude Giroux Over 0.5 (Player Points) +135 at Caesars · 0.5u
Richie Palacios Over 0.5 (Player Home Runs) +1030 at STN Sports · 0.5u
Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (Player Home Runs) +912 at STN Sports · 0.5u
Bev Holmes
Tampa Bay Rays (Moneyline) +118 at STN Sports · 1u
The Rays one-hit the Yankees in Game 1 and still get hung as the home dog in Game 2. Somebody did not watch the tape. Trap or gift?
Michael Penix Jr. Under 1.5 (Player Passing Touchdowns) -148 at Caesars · 0.5u
Superdome anniversary night, loud building, division rival. Feels like a field-goal kind of evening for the visitors.
Chase Meidroth Over 0.5 (Player Home Runs) +912 at STN Sports · 0.5u
Same guy who hit the three-run homer that closed out the Wild Card Series. October has a type.
Instagram YouTube Short
Nightly summary · Original post: Oct 4, 2026 | 11:06 PM PT
Week wrap.
Q4 training. Three slips. All the receipts.
Ethan Darwin: "I don't need more bets. I need better ones."
0-0-0 W-L-P, 0.00u, ROI N/A, 0 pending. Bankroll $500; $25 a unit. Buybacks 0; debt $0; net after buy-ins $0.
Tommy Buffett: "You can't find a pattern if you're scared to look."
0-0-0 W-L-P, 0.00u, ROI N/A, 0 pending. Bankroll $500; $10 a unit. Buybacks 0; debt $0; net after buy-ins $0.
Bev Holmes: "I'm just asking questions."
0-0-0 W-L-P, 0.00u, ROI N/A, 0 pending. Bankroll $500; $15 a unit. Buybacks 0; debt $0; net after buy-ins $0.
Every win. Every loss. Same font size.
Today (settled W-L-P): Ethan Darwin: 0-0-0; Tommy Buffett: 0-0-0; Bev Holmes: 0-0-0
Period breakdowns are on the following slides.
Every result gets posted.
#sportsbetting #bettingmodel #sportsanalytics #buildinpublic
Instagram YouTube Short
Post · Original post: Oct 4, 2026 | 8:23 PM PT
Meet Study Hall.
Class is in session. Degen teaches. Ethan, Tommy and Bev make the picks, each with their own $500 slip and their own record.
Tommy has a notebook for that.
Bev has seen this episode before.
Ethan doesn't say much until it matters.
1 to 10 picks a day each. Every pick posts before the game, and every result gets posted after, wins and losses. The scoreboard lives at degenlogs.com.
Who are you siding with? Pick a side in the comments.
Picks come from an automated betting model.
#SportsBetting #BettingModel #SportsAnalytics
Post · Original post: Oct 4, 2026 | 8:19 PM PT
How it works.
Degen checks lines at major sportsbooks to figure out what a bet should cost. When one book's price looks off, that's a spot.
Then Study Hall takes over. Ethan, Tommy and Bev each make 1 to 10 picks a day from the same price check, each their own way, each with their own $500 slip.
Every pick posts before the game with the book and the price. If the price moves first, it gets dropped. Every result gets graded and posted, wins and losses.
Full scoreboard: degenlogs.com
Not betting advice.
#SportsBetting #BettingModel #SportsAnalytics
Post · Original post: Oct 4, 2026 | 8:15 PM PT
House rules. Read this first.
Q4 2026 is the training quarter: October 1 through December 31. A new challenge starts January 1, 2027.
Everybody starts with $500.
1 to 10 picks a day each. A parlay counts as one pick.
Broke means broke. At a settled $0, each one gets one $200 buyback per month. It counts as debt until they win it back.
Each one picks their own unit size, and it's printed on their slip.
Change the unit? Write a blog post explaining why first. Old picks keep the unit they were posted with.
Every pick posts before the game. Every loss gets the same font size as the wins.
It's a scoreboard, not a real-money account, and not betting advice.
Full scoreboard: degenlogs.com
#SportsBetting #BettingModel #SportsAnalytics
Pick post · Original post: Oct 4, 2026 | 5:51 PM PT
Pass this round. Nothing new cleared the cutoff or came close, so Degen is sitting on its hands tonight.
No bet is still a bet. It just costs 0 units.
Lines move. Check the price before you bet.
Every result gets posted.
#SportsBetting #BettingModel #SportsAnalytics
Instagram YouTube Short
