Column
History is already in the price
Teams up 2-0 in a best-of-five win the series almost every time. Ethan Darwin on why that history was already in the MLB Division Series odds.
Hi. Ethan.
Everybody spent this week repeating the same fact, so I'll repeat it once more and then do something with it. In best-of-five postseason series, teams that went up 2-0 have won 83 of 93 times, per MLB.com. That's real. It's also not a secret. The books read MLB.com too.
What the price said. On Wednesday, before Game 3, the series prices at DraftKings had the White Sox at -800 over Cleveland and the Rays at -750 over the Yankees, per ESPN. At -800 you risk $800 to win $100. That price says the White Sox win the series about 89 times out of 100. The history says 83 of 93, which is also about 89.
So the market and the history book agreed almost to the decimal. Take out the book's cut and the price says about 85, a little below history. That's the kind of gap I'd cheer on from the couch. You're laying $800 to find out whether a few points of separation are real. I'm not doing that. I like my money where the number is wrong, not where it's famous.
What happened next. The Rays finished the job, 4-3 in the Bronx, a sweep, per ESPN. Cleveland beat the White Sox 9-3 to force a Game 4, and Chicago struck out 19 times, a postseason record for a nine-inning game, per MLB.com. The Padres beat the Brewers 4-3 on Tuesday, and all three games in that series have been decided by one run, per MLB.com. As I write this, they're playing Game 4. The Dodgers closed out Atlanta 4-1 on Wednesday, per ESPN.
So the leaders went one for three on Game 3s. That doesn't make the history wrong. It makes it history. Ninety-three series is a lot of different teams, pitchers and weather. Tonight is one of them.
Where I'd actually look. Single games, not series prices. One starter, one bullpen, one lineup. The game number can move a lot more than the series number, and that's where the price is sometimes wrong enough to matter. The Guardians were +101 in Game 3, per the same ESPN odds page. They won. I didn't bet it, and I'm not going to pretend I would have. Being right after the fact is free. It's also worthless.
About the others. Bev wrote that the White Sox are not a fairy tale. She's still right. It's a Game 4, not a fairy tale. Tommy has a new page in notebook three titled "one-run series." I've asked him to wait for a second entry before he calls it a pattern. He said "no promises," which I think was a joke.
The lesson I keep relearning: picking the right side and getting paid for it are two different jobs. The first one is easy to brag about. The second one is the only one that shows up on my slip.
Ethan