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The Argument

The Argument: How much does one week count? (We did the math)

Dallas is 0-2 and the Rays are up 2-0 on the Yankees. Study Hall puts real numbers on how much an early start should move you. Short answer: less than it feels.

Study HallFour opinions. One post.Oct 5, 2026 · 5 min read

Every October, two games turn into a personality. Dallas is 0-2 for the first time since 2019. The Rays are up 2-0 on the Yankees. Group chats everywhere have already written the ending.

Mr. Degen wrote one question on the board, then added a second line underneath it: "Bring a number, not a vibe." Then he left to grade.

The question

How far should a fresh start move what you think about a team?

Tommy
Tommy

I brought the number, because I knew I'd get yelled at otherwise. In the NHL, with the loser point, it takes about 35 games before a team's real talent and plain luck carry equal weight in the standings. That's from Phil Birnbaum's work on hockey luck. So here's the rule I wrote on my hand: after a few games, move your opinion by games divided by games plus 35.

Ethan
Ethan

Which means two games moves you about 5% of the way. Here's the table I'd tape to the fridge:

  • 2 games: about 5% of the way toward the record
  • 10 games: about 22%
  • 20 games: about 36%
  • 41 games (halfway): about 54%
Tommy
Tommy

And that's why a quarter of the season still isn't the whole story. ESPN Research says about 77% of teams in a playoff spot on U.S. Thanksgiving make the playoffs. That's roughly 20 games in, and the standings still miss on about one team in four.

Okay, so Dallas

Ethan
Ethan

Say you thought Dallas was a .600 points team before the season. Do the math: 35.4 games of your old opinion, plus 2 games at .000, divided by 37.4. You land on about .568. They went 0-2 and the honest update is about 3 points. It's not nothing, but it's nowhere near "in trouble."

Ethan
Ethan

That's the only part I care about. If the price on Dallas dropped a lot more than that against a similar opponent, the number overreacted. If it moved about 3 points, the market did the same math I did, and there's nothing to see.

Bev
Bev

Can I point at how they lost, though? The opener was 4-0 to St. Louis. Then 2-1 in Nashville, and both Nashville goals were first-period power plays. One night of special teams decided half the story. Power-play rates swing like crazy over two games. The headline says "offense is broken." The receipt says "two penalties went in."

Tommy
Tommy

The offense has scored one goal in two games, Bev.

Bev
Bev

On 29 Saros saves. I'm not saying it's fine. I'm saying the explanation showed up before the evidence did. That's the part I flag every time.

The playoff version

Bev
Bev

Now the Rays. Game 1 was 1-0, and Drew Rasmussen took a no-hitter into the eighth. A one-run game is about the noisiest result in sports. One swing flips the whole storyline, and the Yankees had exactly one hit.

Tommy
Tommy

Here's my favorite stat of the week. Since the best-of-five Division Series started in 1995, the Game 1 winner has won the series 73% of the time, per CBS Sports. Sounds huge, right?

Ethan
Ethan

It isn't. Take two teams that are exactly even, a true coin flip every game. Whoever wins Game 1 only needs two of the next four, which happens 68.75% of the time. Just from the math of a short series. So Game 1 is worth about four points over a coin. And part of that four is just that the higher seed hosts Game 1.

Rich
Rich

Which is exactly my point. The Rays are the higher seed. They were the better team before Saturday. They are the better team today. Two wins didn't make them better. It confirmed something we already knew.

Ethan
Ethan

Now they're up 2-0 after a 5-2 win in Game 2. Coin-flip math says a 2-0 team needs one win in three, which is 87.5% even if the teams were dead even. Being up 2-0 is mostly about how close the finish line is, and only a little about talent.

Rich
Rich

So the scoreboard is doing most of the work. I respect that.

Where everyone landed

  • Tommy: Use the 35-game rule. Two games moves you about 5%. Write the clue down anyway, because 5% a week adds up.
  • Ethan: Do the update, then compare it to how much the price moved. Only the gap is interesting.
  • Bev: Check what actually decided the games. Two power plays and a one-hitter are not a trend.
  • Rich: Short-series leads come from the format first and from talent second. The better team is usually the one you thought was better in September.

Mr. Degen's note

Mr. Degen: Better. Four numbers instead of four vibes. Tommy brought the rule, Ethan did the math, Bev checked what decided the games, Rich remembered who was better before any of it.

Homework: write down your preseason number for one team. Every week, move it toward their record by games divided by games plus 35. At Thanksgiving, compare that to the group chat. The math will be calmer, and usually closer.

Every pick from all four of them stays on the record, wins and losses alike, so by December we'll know whose read on October held up.

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