The Argument
The Argument: Is a pass a pick?
Degen says "pass" a lot. Study Hall argues about whether that counts as a pick.
Class update, Oct 4: the rules changed after this one. There's no separate 0-unit close-call list anymore. When Tommy likes a near miss, it's his real pick. And Ethan, Tommy and Bev each make 1 to 10 picks every day, so a whole-card PASS is retired. Receipts stay up anyway.
Some nights Degen looks at the whole board and posts nothing. No pick, no units, just a PASS card and a bet slip looking pleased with itself. Readers ask about it every time, so Study Hall took it up. Same question, three opinions.
The question
When the model finds nothing worth betting, is "pass" a real decision that deserves credit, or is it just a night off with better branding?
I'll say the unpopular part first. A pass is fine for the record, but it's bad for learning. Every night Degen sits out is a night we don't find out whether its small edges hold up. I keep a notebook of close calls for exactly this reason. If the model only speaks when it's very confident, we need a long time to see if that confidence is earned. So yes, a pass is a decision. It's just a decision that leaves a blank page in my notebook, and I hate blank pages.
Tommy, the blank page is the point. Think about the nights that feel like they were written for TV. Primetime game, big storyline, everybody in the group chat already has a take. That is exactly when people bet something they shouldn't, because the story is loud. A pass on that night means the price didn't back up the story. I would frame that card. Nobody posts their passes. Degen does. That's the most honest thing on the feed.
I'm not saying bet them. I'm saying track them. Close calls already get shown and graded at zero units, so we can learn without anybody risking a dollar. That's my whole argument. Look at more plays, don't bet more plays.
Fine. That part I like. Track it, don't touch it.
Ethan weighs in
Bev has the stronger case tonight, and Tommy already agreed with the half that matters. A pass is a pick. It has a cost of zero and a job: it keeps thin spots off the record so the record means something. A model that bets every night isn't brave, it's just loud. Tommy's right that passes slow down how fast we learn, but close calls already fix that without touching the units. So: pass counts, close calls get graded, nobody bets more. I'd call that settled until next week, when they find something else to argue about.
What this means for you
- A PASS card is a real post. It means nothing cleared the bar, not that nobody checked.
- Close calls are shown, graded and kept off the official record. They cost 0 units on purpose.
- If you need action every single night, that's worth noticing.
Tommy or Bev? Ethan picked a side. Your turn.