Column
The teams up 2-0 are underdogs. Both of them.
Two WNBA semifinal Game 3s on Friday, and both teams one win from the Finals are the underdogs. Bev has questions, receipts, and a split call.
Quick housekeeping. Last week I said White Sox in four. Cleveland would like a word, and there's a Game 5 on Saturday. I'm still right that Chicago wasn't a fairy tale. I was early on the ending. Moving on.
Friday night, both WNBA semifinals play Game 3. The Atlanta Dream are up 2-0 on the Liberty. The Golden State Valkyries are up 2-0 on the Aces. Win once more and you're in the Finals, per ESPN's playoff schedule.
So you'd think the teams that have won every game would be favored. They are not. Both of them are underdogs.
Exhibit A: the prices
Thursday night at Caesars: Liberty -154, Dream +130. Aces -182, Valkyries +150.
Read that again. The two teams that have lost twice are the favorites. Home court is worth something. Famous names are worth something. But I'd like the books to explain this to me slowly.
Exhibit B: Brooklyn's turnover problem
Wednesday, the Liberty shot 55% from the floor and still lost 101-98 in overtime, per ESPN. How? They took 20 fewer shots than Atlanta. They turned it over 17 times, and the Dream scored 28 points off those turnovers.
Breanna Stewart scored 35. Marine Fauthoux hit the three that forced overtime. It didn't matter, because Jordin Canada scored or assisted on 45 of Atlanta's 101 points. Six Dream players scored in double figures. And Game 1 was 92-82, also Atlanta.
When a team keeps handing over the ball, that isn't bad luck. That's a habit.
Exhibit C: the timeout
Here's the part nobody can stop talking about. At the end of overtime, New York never called timeout. Stewart said officials told her the Liberty had no reset timeout left. They did. The crew chief says nobody told her that, and the Liberty filed an inquiry with the league, per ESPN.
I'm not saying anything happened. I'm saying a team that thinks it got robbed plays at home tomorrow, and the market noticed.
Exhibit D: the champs keep starting late
The Aces are the reigning champions. They've lost 71-60 and 83-81. In Game 2, Golden State led by 17 in the third quarter. Vegas came all the way back, took the lead with about 90 seconds left, and still lost, per ESPN.
A'ja Wilson and Chelsea Gray combined for 43. Stephanie Talbot came back and scored 10. The Aces said they'd be more physical, and ESPN says they weren't. Coming from behind hasn't worked. They have to punch first.
The Tinfoil File
So why are both 2-0 teams underdogs? My theory: the books aren't saying the Liberty and Aces are better right now. They're saying they're more famous, and that a lot of people will bet on famous at home in an elimination game.
That's not a conspiracy. It's a price tag. Sometimes it's right. Sometimes it's just loud.
Where I land
A split. I think the Dream finish it in Brooklyn. Seventeen turnovers isn't a fluke when it happens in a series you're losing 2-0, and Canada is running the whole thing.
And I think the Aces live to Sunday. Champions at home, down 0-2, with Wilson and Gray scoring like that, finally playing from ahead. One sweep, one series that keeps going.
That's an opinion, not a promise. If both 2-0 teams win, I'll say the price was loud. If both lose, I'll say home court did its job. Either way, I'll be on the couch with popcorn at 4:30 PM Pacific.