The White Sox are not a fairy tale. I checked.

Two years ago the Chicago White Sox lost 121 games. That's the most in a 162-game season, ever. Tonight they're up 2-0 on Cleveland in the ALDS and one win from the ALCS.

So naturally, the whole internet has picked a genre. Storybook. Unthinkable. The underdogs who believed. You've heard it all week, and you'll hear it louder on Wednesday.

Here's my problem with that. Fairy tales happen to people. This was built. And my position, up front: Chicago isn't lucky in this series. Chicago is better, and I think they close it out.

Exhibit A: it's not the same team

The story says "the team that lost 121 games is in the playoffs." Cute. Mostly untrue.

According to MLB.com's breakdown of the turnaround, hitters who played for both the 2024 and 2026 teams took just 19.8% of this year's plate appearances. Pitchers left over from 2024 faced 33% of this year's batters. Only one hitter, Andrew Benintendi, had 400 plate appearances in both seasons.

That's not a comeback. That's a different cast in the same jerseys. Which is fine. It's just a different story.

Exhibit B: the trade that looked like a white flag

Remember when Chicago traded Garrett Crochet after his breakout 2024? At the time it looked like a team selling off its best player. Three of the four prospects from that deal were in line for this postseason's lineup.

Meidroth put up 4.5 Baseball-Reference WAR this year, per MLB.com. Kyle Teel came back from injuries and got Chicago's first hit in Game 2. And Braden Montgomery, the rookie right fielder, lined the two-run double that won it, according to ESPN's Game 2 recap.

So the "magic" hit in Game 2 came from the trade that looked like a white flag. I love that for them.

Exhibit C: the guy nobody wanted to talk about

Miguel Vargas came over from the Dodgers in a 2024 three-team deal and posted a .387 OPS in 42 games for Chicago, per MLB.com. That's rough. That's "maybe don't check your phone" rough.

This year was an All-Star breakout. Going into the final week, he had 33 home runs, 92 RBIs and an .842 OPS. Nobody writes the fairy tale about the guy who was bad and then got good. That's not magic. That's work and patience, which don't make great movie trailers.

The Tinfoil Files

Okay. My actual suspicion, and it's the one nobody on TV is saying out loud.

You're about to hear that Cleveland has been unlucky. One hit short. Bad breaks. Due.

I don't buy it. In Game 1, the Guardians loaded the bases with two outs in back-to-back innings and scored nothing, per ESPN's Game 1 recap. That's not bad luck. That's Chicago's bullpen getting the biggest outs of the night, twice. Five pitchers combined on a three-hitter with 12 strikeouts. Then in Game 2, Sean Burke, one of the few holdovers from 2024, gave up one hit over 5 1/3 innings of relief, per ESPN.

When the same thing keeps happening in the biggest spots, it stops being a coincidence and starts being a skill. "Unlucky" is just what people call it when they don't want to give the other team credit.

To be fair to Cleveland: they won the division at 85-77, and Gavin Williams struck out 11 in Game 2. They're good. Chicago, at 84-78 with a +56 run differential, isn't a juggernaut either. But this series isn't about the regular season. It's about who gets outs with runners on, and so far that's not close.

Where I land

My position: the White Sox are the better team in this series, and I think they finish it. White Sox in four.

Why four and not three? Cleveland's too good to go quietly. They won the division and their starter just struck out 11. I think they steal one, then Chicago finishes it at home.

Not because it's destiny. Because the roster was built, the young hitters are delivering, and the bullpen keeps winning the innings that decide games. That's an opinion, not a promise, and baseball in October can humble anybody. But I'm not hedging it.

And if Cleveland takes Game 3 on Wednesday in Chicago? I won't say I was wrong about this team being real. I'll say a good team won a baseball game. Then I'll watch Game 4, popcorn out, remote in hand.

The lesson, if you want one: when a story gets this loved this fast, read the box score before you buy the narrative. Usually the real version is better. This time, the real version says the White Sox earned it.

Bev