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NLCS Notebook: the Brewers are up 3-0 and the Dodgers are still favored
Milwaukee is one win from its first World Series in 44 years, and Game 4 still has the Dodgers favored. Tommy empties the notebook on the NLCS and the ALCS.
Hi. Tommy.
The Brewers are up three games to none on the two-time defending champs, and for Game 4 the Dodgers are -164 at Caesars. Wait, what?
That's where the notebook starts tonight. Milwaukee beat Los Angeles 6-2 in Game 3, and the MLB.com recap has them one win from their first World Series in 44 years. I filled six pages. Here's the notebook dump, five things, in order, and each one hands off to the next.
First, one I owe you. Last week I said Houston at Tennessee would be close, because Last-Drive Club games are always close. Houston won 26-3. That one goes in the binder face down.
1. Pitch one
Jackson Chourio hit Blake Snell's very first pitch of the night out to right-center. Since 1988, when pitch counts were first fully tracked, he's only the sixth hitter to homer on the first pitch of a postseason game (MLB.com).
The human reason: Snell came out firing. And then he was great. He retired 14 straight, six by strikeout, and finished with nine strikeouts in six innings (ESPN). Which makes his last pitch even stranger. Hold that thought.
2. Jake Bauers does not like short conversations
Down 2-1 in the seventh, Jake Bauers saw 11 pitches, fouled off the eighth, ninth and tenth, and hit the eleventh 412 feet for the lead (ESPN). In Game 2 he had a 12-pitch battle with Yoshinobu Yamamoto (MLB.com).
That's 23 pitches in two at-bats. Quick tangent: that's my dog Rooks at the treat jar. He doesn't leave until something good happens. Garrett Mitchell homered on the next pitch, 428 feet, and that was Snell's last pitch of the night. First pitch a homer, last pitch a homer, 14 straight outs in between. Highlighter's out.
3. The guy hitting .043 got the big hit
The Dodgers' two runs came from Will Smith, who walked in hitting .043 in the series. His first hit of the NLCS was a two-run double that gave LA a 2-1 lead in the sixth (ESPN).
The human reason: Abner Uribe walked Teoscar Hernandez, Kyle Tucker and Shohei Ohtani to load the bases first. Slumps end when somebody hands you a full plate.
4. Ohtani batted sixth
That's the lowest he's hit in the order since he joined the Dodgers three years ago. He went 1-for-2 with a walk. And the Dodgers still haven't homered in the series (ESPN). They had runners on in all but three innings. Lots of traffic, no exits.
5. Pull up the chart on 3-0
In MLB history, 42 teams have fallen behind 3-0 in a best-of-seven postseason series. Thirty-two were swept. Two forced a Game 7. One came back: the 2004 Red Sox (MLB.com). The Dodgers have trailed 3-0 once before in franchise history, in the 1966 World Series, and the Orioles swept them (ESPN).
So history says most of these end in four. The market says the Dodgers are -164 for Game 4 at Caesars, and the Brewers are +142 at STN. Those can both be true. The chart pools 42 teams of every quality. Only one of them was the two-time champs at home with Tyler Glasnow lined up. A trend tells you what usually happens. It doesn't tell you who's pitching.
And one more for the binder: the Dodgers swept the Brewers in this same round last year. If Milwaukee finishes the sweep, the MLB.com notes say they'd be the first team swept out one October that sweeps the same team the next.
Bonus page: the ALCS
The other series is 1-1 and heading to Cleveland. Game 2 turned on three unearned runs after a grounder skipped past Jose Ramirez (MLB.com). Game 3 is Gavin Williams against the Rays' Griffin Jax (ESPN).
Here's my favorite matchup on the board. Williams led the American League with 248 strikeouts and struck out 24 White Sox in the ALDS. The Rays had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball this season (MLB.com). The strikeout guy against the team that doesn't strike out. Somebody's trend breaks Thursday.
Receipts
I've got receipts, and the first one is already up top. In Debate Club I argued Guardians in six and lost the debate to Rich. The series is 1-1. I'm still in it, and Rich is still being polite about it, which is worse.
Ethan argued Brewers in six and won his debate. Ethan, buddy, you might be two games too patient.
Where I land
- NLCS: Brewers in five. The Dodgers get one at home behind Glasnow, because the plot beats the pattern for one night. Then Milwaukee finishes it in LA on Friday.
- ALCS: Williams gets the Guardians the Game 3 win, and I'm sticking with Guardians in six.
Ask me again Saturday. I'll bring the notebook.
Every Study Hall pick goes on the record, wins and losses alike.
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Tommy
