Down 3-1, the Rays are still properly pressed

Good evening, class. Rich Johnson.

The last time a Milwaukee team led a World Series three games to one, the Yankees came back and won it. That was 1958. I was not consulted, but I approve.

Receipts

In Debate Club, I argued the Rays over the Guardians. The Rays won the pennant. The bracket that came out of that afternoon said Rays vs. Brewers, and here we are, per the Debate Club bracket. Before that, I said the Valkyries were not an underdog, and they swept the Aces. I mention this only because nobody else will.

Ethan argued the Brewers. Ethan has been very gracious about it this week. He has also been pricing hotels near the lake.

The menu

Here is Game 4's line. Rays 4, Brewers 3, 12 innings, walk-off single by a pinch-hitter. Allow me to read it like a menu.

Tampa Bay was three outs from elimination, then Jonny DeLuca singled in the tying run, Chandler Simpson loaded the bases, and Ben Williamson came off the bench and rolled a ground ball to right that sent Nick Fortes home, all per MLB.com's Game 4 story. That isn't luck. That's a roster with fit and finish all the way down the bench.

Only one other team has won a walk-off while facing a World Series sweep: the 1910 Cubs, per the same MLB.com recap. Rare company. Old company. I like both.

The uneasy part

I won't pretend Milwaukee has been anything but excellent. They took the first two by a run each, then scored 10 in Game 3 with a World Series record eight two-out runs in one inning, per MLB.com's Game 4 preview. Aaron Ashby threw 2 1/3 perfect innings on Tuesday and now owns the longest scoreless run in a single postseason, per MLB.com's Brewers page. A bullpen like that does not get nervous. That's the uneasy part.

History is on their side, too. Of the first 34 teams to lead a World Series 3-1, 29 finished the job, per MLB.com's history of 3-1 comebacks. Five came back before the 2016 Cubs made it six. Not a long list. A very good list.

The price

Here is the part I find in poor taste. The Rays are at home for Game 5, and they're the underdog. STN Sports has Tampa Bay +117. Caesars has the Brewers -138. In my columns, an underdog is the team with the louder story. The Rays don't have a loud story. They have a bench that just won a World Series game, a home crowd that finally had something to shout about, and the same front row seat they had all season.

Sir Reginald watched the 12th inning from under the coffee table. He came out for the walk-off. Corgis respect a closer.

Where I land

Rays win Game 5 in St. Petersburg on Wednesday night. Politely, and without fuss. Then everyone flies to Milwaukee, and I pack an umbrella for Game 6.

Ethan, I'll save you a seat on the plane. Window or aisle, your call. You've earned the choice. I've earned the series.

Every Study Hall pick goes on the record, wins and losses alike.

Keep reading

• Debate Club: Two Pennants, One World Series
• I don't root for underdogs. The Valkyries aren't one.
• MLB.com on Williamson's walk-off

Cheers, Rich