The Argument
Who wins the 2026 World Series? Three writers, three champions
Brewers, White Sox or Dodgers? Study Hall argues the 2026 MLB playoffs, Division Series and World Series odds, and lands on three different champions.
Eight teams are left. The Division Series is a few games old, the 2026 World Series starts Oct. 23, and Study Hall was asked a simple question: who wins it all? Nobody could agree. Not even close. So here are three brackets and three champions.
Where things stand
Written Sunday night, Oct. 4, while Braves at Dodgers Game 2 was still being played.
- ALDS: No. 1 Rays lead No. 4 Yankees, 1-0, after a 1-0 Game 1. No. 6 White Sox lead No. 2 Guardians, 1-0, after a 3-0 win in Cleveland.
- NLDS: No. 1 Brewers lead No. 4 Padres, 2-0, after 3-2 and 4-3 wins. No. 2 Dodgers lead No. 3 Braves, 1-0, after a 5-3 Game 1.
- What's next: Division Series wrap by Oct. 10, the NLCS starts Oct. 11, the ALCS Oct. 12, and the World Series opens Oct. 23 at the team with the better record.
Caesars World Series odds at about 4:30 PM PT Sunday: Dodgers +175, Brewers +300, Rays +500, Yankees +800, White Sox +800, Braves +1600, Guardians +1800, Padres +4000. Prices move fast, which is why the same bet at a better price matters.
The question
Who wins the 2026 World Series, and how do they get there?
Brewers. I'm not being cute. Milwaukee won 103 games, the best record in baseball, and that's 162 games of evidence against a five-game sample (I have a whole column on sample size) everyone is about to overreact to. They're up 2-0 on San Diego, and both wins were by one run, which is exactly the type of game a deep bullpen wins over and over. Jacob Misiorowski is the NL Cy Young frontrunner and Logan Henderson is a real No. 2. My path: Brewers close out the Padres, then beat the Dodgers in the NLCS. Yes, I know. But the Dodgers' bullpen has been a revolving door, and the Brewers' isn't. Then they get the Rays in the World Series, Games 1 and 2 in Milwaukee because of that 103-win record. Brewers in six. I have it written down in three notebooks.
Tommy, you brought a spreadsheet to a movie. I'm taking the White Sox, and let me show you the script. They went 84-78. They swept Houston in the Wild Card round. The last time they won a playoff series before this week was the 2005 World Series, which they finished by sweeping, wait for it, Houston. They're the No. 6 seed, they just shut out the division champs in Cleveland, and they hit 211 home runs this year. That is a team built for October chaos. My path: White Sox finish Cleveland, then knock off whoever wins Rays and Yankees, then beat the Dodgers in the World Series. Chicago against Los Angeles, the underdog against the two-time defending champs. If you pitched that to a studio they'd say it's too much.
Quick note before this gets out of hand. I'm not taking either of your teams. Keep going.
That's a great story. It's also a 6 seed that has to win three more series.
And I checked the price. White Sox +800 at Caesars is about an 11% implied chance before the vig. So no, the book does not think it's written. Fine. It's just a line. But I've seen a lot of scripts, and this one has a good second act.
For the record, the Rays are my AL team. 98 wins, top seed, and they already won a 1-0 game this October. Pitching and patience. That's a pattern I trust more than a callback to 2005.
You trust a pattern from April. I trust a pattern from this week.
Ethan weighs in
As promised, neither. You're both half right, which is annoying for everyone, and since nobody can share a champion, I'm taking the Dodgers.
Here's why. The Dodgers are the most likely single winner on the board, and it isn't close. Caesars has them at +175, which is about 36% implied. Strip out the vig across all eight teams and it's still roughly a one in three shot. Milwaukee is next at around one in five. The White Sox are closer to one in ten. Picking the favorite isn't brave. It's just the math picking for me.
My path: Dodgers get past Atlanta, even though the Braves went 5-1 against them this season. Then they beat Milwaukee in the NLCS, which is the series I'm least sure about. Tommy's bullpen point is the best argument anyone made tonight, and it's the reason I'd call the NLCS close to a coin flip. Then they beat Tampa Bay in the World Series. A rotation of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow is a lot to get through four times in seven games.
Now the part where I disappoint both of them. Most likely winner and good price are two different questions. At +175, I don't see a gap I'd care about, so there's no call from me. (Is a pass a pick? Still arguing about that one.) Tommy still has the better argument, because his case is about how this team wins games, not about a number on a board. Bev's story is the most fun and the least likely, and she said so herself, which I respect.
Sided with Tommy on the argument, picked the Dodgers on the odds. That's allowed. I checked.
The scorecard
- Tommy: Brewers over Rays. Path: Padres, Dodgers, Rays.
- Bev: White Sox over Dodgers. Path: Guardians, Rays or Yankees, Dodgers.
- Ethan: Dodgers over Rays. Path: Braves, Brewers, Rays.
Three champions, zero agreement. We'll revisit this after the Division Series and again before Game 1 on Oct. 23. Whoever is wrong has to write the next column about being wrong.
Keep reading
- Same bet, better price: why the number matters more than the team.
- Ask me again in 200 picks: Tommy on sample size.
- Is a pass a pick?: Study Hall on sitting out.
- Degen's full record: every pick, every win, every loss.
- MLB postseason schedule and results
Tommy or Bev? Ethan picked a side, sort of. Your turn.